February 11, 2025
SUMMARY
A combination of a year-over-year dip in employment (-0.7%) and robust 3.2% growth in the construction labour force led to a spike in the unemployment rate, which rose to 9.6% in January. Employment for women grew by 0.5% y/y, while men’s employment contracted by -0.9% y/y.
The average BCPI inflation for Ottawa, Toronto, and London was down significantly in 2024 compared to the previous two years. However, inflation still remains high and near-term inflation appeared to be reheating, particularly in Toronto.
EMPLOYMENT
Employment shrank both monthly (not adjusted for seasonality) and annually in January (-0.7% y/y). Labour force on the other hand, increased in both monthly and yearly terms, with a strong 3.2% y/y gain. This led to a relatively large increase in the unemployment rate, which jumped from 6% in December to 9.6% in January. Although this is higher than what was observed in the last couple of years, it was lower than January 2021 (10.1%) and on par with January 2019.
Breaking it down by demographics, both women and men labour force increase was similar to the overall increase, but women’s employment increased by 0.5% y/y while men’s employment fell by -0.9% y/y. Among ages 25-54, the gain in employment was 2.4% y/y (although still outpaced by a 4.2% increase in labour force).
BCPI Q4
At the end of 2024, the BCPI saw marked improvement since the beginning of the year when the Q1 annualized inflation was 5.1%. There was significant reduction compared to prior years when inflation ran in the double digits. Despite the improvement, inflation in the ICI building sector is still coming in much higher than headline inflation (1.7% y/y in December). Furthermore, the near-term inflation is still running hot; in Q4 there was a reacceleration of the quarterly inflation, ticking up from 0.6% to 0.9% in all sectors. The quarterly increases were slightly larger in Toronto (average ICI inflation jumping up from 0.5% to 1.1% q/q) compared to Ottawa (increase from 0.6% to 0.8% q/q). London, which is new to the series, showed the opposite trend, with stalled or slightly lower quarterly increases, but still high annualized inflation. According to Statistics Canada, builders cited skilled labour shortages, land availability, and building code changes as sources of inflationary pressure.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Ali Ahmad
Research Analyst
Ontario Construction Secretariat (OCS)
180 Attwell Drive, Suite 360, Toronto, ON M9W 6A9
P 416.620.5210 ext. 222
aahmad@iciconstruction.com
