We are certainly living in interesting times, and the economic outlook has changed several times since we held our 2025 State of the Industry and Outlook Conference (SIOC) in early March. When we surveyed contractors in January for our annual contractor survey, the threat of tariffs had not yet fully materialized and there was no certainty as to what would be tariffed, when tariffs would be imposed, or what retaliatory measures would be taken.
In order to get a current pulse on how this economic uncertainty will impact our industry, we posed a series of questions to our conference attendees. Here is what we heard.
- Overall, 80% of conference attendees who answered the survey have a positive outlook for Ontario’s construction industry. Similar to what we heard from contractors in January, attendees point to government and infrastructure investment and a significant project pipeline as the main reasons for their positivity.
- Political and economic uncertainty as well as tariffs were top of mind for those individuals who were less positive in their outlook.
- In terms of top concerns, respondents focused on the labour market challenges including attracting and retaining apprentices, availability of journeypersons, and keeping apprentices and journeypersons employed during slowdowns. As we heard at the conference, labour market challenges do not necessarily mean there is a shortage of workers. Rather, these challenges arise in response to specific market conditions and specific regions. Given the current uncertainty, a number of respondents spoke to a slowdown in new work opportunities.
- Digging further into the impact of tariffs, most respondents said as of early March they simply don’t know what the impact will be and that it’s too soon to tell. However, we also heard that the uncertainty about tariffs was having an immediate effect on owners and contractors who were most concerned about cost impacts. This uncertainty is delaying projects and may ultimately result in project cancellations.
- In terms of solutions to tariffs and uncertainty, respondents pointed to supply chain diversification strategies (something that contractors also mentioned).
As we step back and reflect on what we heard from economists, contractors, and labour representatives, the story remains more or less the same. Ontario has all the ingredients of a strong ICI sector construction market with a $200 billion project pipeline and a stable labour market. However, tariffs will impact some market segments (commercial, automotive, industrial) more than others. Although institutional and government infrastructure projects are not immune to the supply chain challenges and material cost implications of tariffs, these projects will still likely proceed.
Stayed tuned for further updates on this evolving market.
