September 21, 2023: Headline inflation in Ontario Creeping Back Up


September 21, 2023

SUMMARY
Headline inflation in Ontario increased from 3.2% in July to 3.8% in August. Inflation excluding food and energy also increased, but by a smaller amount, as it climbed up from 3.5% to 3.6%. Prices for Cement, glass, and non-metallic mineral products increased at 9.4% year-over-year, finally reaching single digit inflation. Energy and petroleum products and Lumber and other wood products continue to experience year-over-year prices decreases, however energy prices declined at a much slower rate compared to July. Plastic and Rubber Products and Packaging and Materials both fell below 3% inflation, both for the first time in over 2 years. Fabricated metal and construction materials price index fell slightly, the 6th drop in a row for this product category.

ONTARIO CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Ontario year-over-year headline inflation increased from 3.2% in July to 3.8% in August, driving inflation back near levels seen in the first half of the year. Higher food price inflation once again played a role, in addition to higher goods inflation, which increased from 2.3% to 3.5%. Services inflation also increased a small amount, from 4% to 4.1%. Energy price inflation fell for the 6th consecutive month, but only decreased a mere 0.4% annually, compared to the -8.3% year-over-year from July. Core inflation edged up from 3.5% to 3.6%.


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT AND RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX
Decreasing Prices

Energy and petroleum product prices declined 9.1% annually, a much slower pace compared to the 22.7% year-over-year decline in July. This was the 6th consecutive decrease in this category. Lumber and other wood products prices decreased 15.5% year-over-year, making this the 10th consecutive drop. This was similar to the 15.1% decrease in July. Fabricated metal and construction materials prices dropped 2.4% annually. This is the 6th consecutive drop in this category and similar to the -3% year-over-year from July.

Slowing Prices 
Packaging materials and containers annual price inflation slowed from 3.1% in July to 2.9% in August.  Inflation in this category has been easing since February and is the lowest in over 2 years. Plastic and rubber product inflation was 2.8%, less than July’s 4.5% and the first time this index has been below 3% in over 2 years.

Elevated Prices
Cement, glass, and other non-metallic mineral product prices remain elevated, with annual price inflation at 9.4%. However, this is down from the 11.8% inflation in July and the first time in a year that it has gone down to single digits.


Note: some of the numbers reported in the last price index bulletin have changed due to revisions by Statistics Canada.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:

Ali Ahmad
Research Analyst

Ontario Construction Secretariat (OCS)
180 Attwell Drive, Suite 360, Toronto, ON M9W 6A9
P 416.620.5210 ext. 222
aahmad@iciconstruction.com