April 16, 2025
SUMMARY
Even with the reversal of the GST holiday affecting March, Ontario’s headline inflation moderated from 2.7% y/y in February to 2.3% in March. Inflation excluding food and energy was also 2.3%. Services and rent inflation cooled, while energy inflation dropped into the negatives. We can expect to see even lower inflation next month as April data will capture the removal of the carbon tax.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX INFLATION
Ontario’s headline inflation eased from 2.7% y/y in February to 2.3% y/y in March. Excluding food and energy, this drop was more pronounced (3.2% down to 2.3%). Even before the ending of the carbon tax, the March data shows energy inflation was down significantly, from 2.6% to -0.3%; we can expect to see an even greater drop in inflation in the April data next month, as gas prices fell heavily with the removal of the carbon tax. Another prominent decrease was in rent inflation, which slid from 6% to 4.5%, the smallest year-over-year increase since January 2022 (3.5%). Services inflation also moderated, from 3.7% down to 3%. At the national level, there was also a large decrease seen in airfare and travel inflation as Canadians decided against travel plans to the US.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Ali Ahmad
Research Analyst
Ontario Construction Secretariat (OCS)
180 Attwell Drive, Suite 360, Toronto, ON M9W 6A9
P 416.620.5210 ext. 222
aahmad@iciconstruction.com
