September 18, 2024
SUMMARY
Employment and labour force increased slightly from July to August, while the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.5%. Numbers have been cooling down since the overheated summers of the past 2 years. Total non-residential permit value rose by 25.6% m/m from June to July (42% y/y). Gains were primarily from strong showings in the commercial and industrial sectors, but the institutional sector remained relatively high despite its m/m decrease.
EMPLOYMENT
From July to August, employment increased from 579.4K to 581.6K, and the labour force went up from 604.9K to 609.1K. The unemployment rate rose a tad from 4.2% to 4.5% but remained far below the overall Ontario rate of 8.3% (which jumped almost a full percent from the prior month). Although the past interest rate hikes are digging into the economy as a whole, the construction sector hasn’t been affected as strongly. The usual summer trend has been preserved, as the overall rate is once again diverging from the construction unemployment rate.
Compared to the last 2 overheated summers however, there has been a notable change. Employment moderated this summer, as figures were 6-7% lower than in 2023, which saw record high employment and labour force numbers.
PERMITS
Total ICI permit value shot up from $2.01 billion (B) in June to $2.52B in July (+25.6% m/m). The commercial sector posted a 35.5% m/m increase, from $793.6M to roughly $1B. Although a strong monthly movement, the sector was surprisingly down -1.2% y/y. Industrial building permit value saw a monumental 121.6% m/m gain, from $328.6M to $728.3M; this was also a massive +273.1% y/y difference. In fact, this value was the second highest on record in current unadjusted dollars and the highest on record for seasonally adjusted dollars. This showing was largely due to permitting for the expansion of a tire manufacturing plant in Greater Napanee. Lastly, the institutional sector posted a -19.1% m/m decline from a relatively large $882.9M to $714.2M (which was still up 323.9% y/y). Year-to-date permit value changes were positive overall, although the industrial sector was a modest -3.6% below the previous year’s YTD value.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Ali Ahmad
Research Analyst
Ontario Construction Secretariat (OCS)
180 Attwell Drive, Suite 360, Toronto, ON M9W 6A9
P 416.620.5210 ext. 222
aahmad@iciconstruction.com
