January 18 2024: Inflation remains stubborn

January 18, 2024

SUMMARY
Total Ontario headline inflation edged up to 3.4% in December. Inflation excluding food and energy decreased from 3.8% to 3.5%, mostly due to lower services price inflation. Lumber and other wood products and Energy and petroleum products continue to experience significant year-over-year price decreases. Cement, glass, and other non-metallic mineral product price inflation remains elevated.

ONTARIO CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Ontario year-over-year headline inflation went up from 3.3% in November to 3.4% in December. Core inflation however, decreased from 3.8% to 3.5%. This was largely due to cooling services price inflation, which fell from 4.6% to 4.1% (movements in core inflation tend to follow services inflation since services prices are stickier). Goods inflation however increased from 1.5% to 2.7%. Energy price inflation was mildly negative at -0.8%.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT AND RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX
Decreasing Prices 
Lumber and other wood products price inflation was -7.2% in December; this was the 14^th consecutive decrease in year-over-year prices. Energy and petroleum product prices declined -14.2%, and while not as large as the -15.7% from November, this was the 10^th consecutive decrease. Fabricated metal and construction materials inflation was -3.1%. This is the 10^th consecutive drop in this category.

Rising Prices 
Plastic and rubber product inflation was 0.9%, which was a minor reversal from November when it was -0.4%. Prices for Packaging materials and containers rose to 5.9%, making this the 5^th year-over-year price increase in a row. Cement, glass, and other non-metallic mineral product inflation remains elevated, with annual price inflation at 11.4%.

Note: some of the numbers reported in the last price index bulletin have changed due to revisions by Statistics Canada.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:

Ali Ahmad
Research Analyst

Ontario Construction Secretariat (OCS)
180 Attwell Drive, Suite 360, Toronto, ON M9W 6A9
P 416.620.5210 ext. 222
aahmad@iciconstruction.com